Cappiello vs. Murphy

Recently with Republican Congressional candidate, David Cappiello, putting a website up online, people have been very interested in analyzing this race, so now it's my turn.

To begin with nobody knows David Cappiello better then we do here in Danbury because he has served us in the State Senate since being elected in 1998. Prior to that he represented the 138th State House District for four years, and was on the Common Council for a year before being elected to state office. Cappiello has never faced a serious threat for his Senate Seat, and out of his five elections, he has been unopposed three of them, one being in 2006. He is probably the most well liked politician in Danbury, and has much support on both sides of the aisle. He always earns more then sixty percent of the vote, and his popularity is very high.

On the other hand, Congressman Chris Murphy, is also very well liked. He beat twenty-four year incumbent Nancy Johnson by twelve percent, much more than anticipated. He also connects very well to voters, and his recent debut of "Congress On Your Corner", where he goes to different shopping locations to talk to voters who probably would not contact him, is probably going to be a very big success. In 2006, Murphy traveled to "41 Towns In 41 Days", going door-to-door to talk to voters, truly running a grassroots campaign.

One thing that they both have going for them, which is why this race could be so fun to watch, is that they are both young, energetic politicians who are both part of the new generation of politics. Murphy will be 35 on Election Day 2008, and Cappiello will be 40. They bring a lot of energy that a race with Nancy Johnson or Jim Maloney didn't bring. Who connects to the youth could be interesting. Murphy probably has the upper-hand being the Democrat, and a slight bit younger, but Cappiello may attract average families because he has one, and Murphy doesn't have any children.

Cappiello is a moderate Republican, who has criticized, and went against his party various times while in the Senate. He was actually one of the first Republican Senators to call on former Governor John Rowland to resign. Being moderate will definitely help him, and calling the war a mistake, puts him in good position with voters too. This is where Cappiello may have the advantage because Murphy is not as moderate as he is, and if Cappiello can mention this throughout the campaign it will only help him.

Murphy ran a very good campaign in 2006, and beat a longtime Connecticut Republican. He connected with voters, and labeled Nancy Johnson as being out of touch. He ran on the message that it was "time for a change". However, Murphy can't say that now, and he will have to be able to show that he has brought real results to Connecticut, something Cappiello will criticize. Murphy did very well because of a big Democratic tide last election. Now, I doubt there will be a Republican tide here in 2008, but if they do put up a very likeable and moderate person for President, it could help Cappiello. Giuliani is probably the best at doing this because he stands for what many Connecticut Republicans stand for. He would have a very good shot at winning our state, which could only help Cappiello.

Money may be the key, though, and Murphy wins that battle. We don't know the second quarter figures yet, but Murphy did raise 420K the first quarter, and Cappiello had yet to enter the race. Just remember Johnson had more money then Murphy, so it is possible. The key here will probably be likability, and being able to connect with voters. We still have a long time, but this race will definitely be a good one.