Mike Bloomberg & The Presidency

Somebody has recently asked me to express my thoughts on Mayor Mike Bloomberg and his possible Presidential run, so here it is.

To begin with, Bloomberg's political party affiliation change does make sense if you look at it closely. He is not a true Republican, and has only been registered one since 2001 when he ran for Mayor. He is not a left-wing Democrat, but he does have a small streak of being liberal in him. This really does make him more of an independent. However, his move does suggest that he will run for President because who just decides to change their party affiliation, even if they have been criticized for many years. I mean is this really the most important issue he was facing? Well, no, but it is if he is going to take a shot at the Oval Office.

He claims that he isn't running, but he hasn't ruled it out totally. Now, what you've been waiting for -- what are his chances and would he win. The simple answer is no, he doesn't have much of a chance no matter who the party nominees are. This is because he needs 270 electoral votes to win, and he will get a decent amount of votes, but he won't win states, which is the only way you can be elected. Besides New York (and that itself would be very difficult) what states could he actually win? People are upset with Republicans and Democrats, but not so much where they will elect an Independent.

However, Bloomberg does have the finances to run a campaign because he is a billionaire. This is a big reason why he won't announce until the two candidates have been chosen or very close to it. Who the Republicans and Democrats pick will probably also affect his decision. If Giuliani or Clinton are chosen he may opt out of running because he is very cordial with both, and wouldn't want to face them. If Giuliani and Clinton are the nominees than Bloomberg may also choose to run, despite who he would be facing. Hey, that would be some race, one he might not want to pass on.

So, who does he hurt most -- the Republicans or the Democrats. Well, at first I felt he hurt the Republicans more, but many have been saying the Democrats would be the ones in trouble. He would act as a Ross Perot or Ralph Nader, but I think that it will depend who the nominees are to see who he takes the Presidency away from. If Hillary is the Democrat, then Bloomberg could hurt her the most because the people that just can't stand her, but aren't happy with the Republican will vote for Bloomberg. Conservative voters who won't vote for Giuliani just won't vote because Bloomberg is even more liberal than he is on social issues and they won't vote for a Democrat. He could hurt a conservative Republican candidate because moderates may be attracted to Bloomberg. For example, in Connecticut, Bloomberg could take votes away from someone like Mitt Romney and secure a victory for the Democrat in our state. I have seen a few recent national polls that show the following would happen nationwide if Bloomberg runs:

Giuliani -- 41%
Clinton -- 39%
Bloomberg -- 9%

Clinton -- 40%
McCain -- 39%
Bloomberg -- 10%

This should sure be very interesting and we may not be able to predict at all what the outcome may be in a race that has Bloomberg in it. He may not even run, though I think that he will. What does he have to lose -- money? For the excitement and chaos he will cause he might as well do it.