Rudy vs. Mitt

We are officially in campaign mode for the Presidential primaries, and this is the first post of many to speculate the races.

On the Republican side, there are eight candidates, five very strong and well liked candidates, and three who really have no shot at getting the nomination. They are Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Ron Paul. Of the three Paul will get the anti-war Republican vote, but besides that he will probably not do well.

The top five candidates are Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee. Giuliani leads all national polls, however is down in many early primary voting states. Thompson usually places second in national polls, and Romney and McCain usually flip-flop the third place spot.

However, at this time I believe that the Republican nomination will either go to Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney, and here's why.

First, Romney is up in Iowa and New Hampshire. Though Mike Huckabee is giving him a very tough fight in Iowa, Romney still looks to be in good shape. Giuliani comes in third in most polls in Iowa, and second in New Hampshire, but not a very close second. It's very unlikely McCain can pull off an upset in his magical state of New Hampshire, and Thompson's campaign just seems to be very confusing.

After New Hampshire, comes Michigan which is where Romney's family is from. Despite this, he is locked in a battle with Giuliani there. After that comes South Carolina, which has Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani as the top three. Nevada's primary is held the same day as South Carolina, where Giuliani is managing to keep the lead. After this comes Florida, where Giuliani is doing very well.

Super Tuesday is February 5th, and will feature over twenty states. Giuliani does well in many of them, and is hoping on a strong showing. However, early momentum by Romney could make it more interesting.

So, with all that said, it is very likely that the Republican accepting the nomination will be Romney or Giuliani. There are many what ifs, and many situations to look at. The month of December should be very interesting to see if Giuliani makes up ground in Iowa and New Hampshire.

At this time though, I'm going to say Romney and Giuliani will fight it out in a tough battle. But hey - anything, and I mean anything can happen.