Rudy vs. Mitt

We are officially in campaign mode for the Presidential primaries, and this is the first post of many to speculate the races.

On the Republican side, there are eight candidates, five very strong and well liked candidates, and three who really have no shot at getting the nomination. They are Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Ron Paul. Of the three Paul will get the anti-war Republican vote, but besides that he will probably not do well.

The top five candidates are Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Mike Huckabee. Giuliani leads all national polls, however is down in many early primary voting states. Thompson usually places second in national polls, and Romney and McCain usually flip-flop the third place spot.

However, at this time I believe that the Republican nomination will either go to Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney, and here's why.

First, Romney is up in Iowa and New Hampshire. Though Mike Huckabee is giving him a very tough fight in Iowa, Romney still looks to be in good shape. Giuliani comes in third in most polls in Iowa, and second in New Hampshire, but not a very close second. It's very unlikely McCain can pull off an upset in his magical state of New Hampshire, and Thompson's campaign just seems to be very confusing.

After New Hampshire, comes Michigan which is where Romney's family is from. Despite this, he is locked in a battle with Giuliani there. After that comes South Carolina, which has Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani as the top three. Nevada's primary is held the same day as South Carolina, where Giuliani is managing to keep the lead. After this comes Florida, where Giuliani is doing very well.

Super Tuesday is February 5th, and will feature over twenty states. Giuliani does well in many of them, and is hoping on a strong showing. However, early momentum by Romney could make it more interesting.

So, with all that said, it is very likely that the Republican accepting the nomination will be Romney or Giuliani. There are many what ifs, and many situations to look at. The month of December should be very interesting to see if Giuliani makes up ground in Iowa and New Hampshire.

At this time though, I'm going to say Romney and Giuliani will fight it out in a tough battle. But hey - anything, and I mean anything can happen.

A Little Strange

The latest Zogby Poll shows a little shocking news. They have Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton losing to every Republican candidate running for President, that were polled. It seems a little odd that Hillary has dropped, and that Republicans are starting to gain some traction. She has been considered as the one to beat, however many say she is easier to defeat because her negatives are so high.

That could be true as the poll also showed that Barack Obama and John Edwards do well against the Republican candidates. They either lead or are tied with the GOP candidates.

Many say that Rudy Giuliani is the only one who could beat Hillary Clinton, and the Zogby poll had him up 43%-40%. He is also up in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll 46%-42%. John McCain also runs strong against Hillary. Mitt Romney seems to be a little stronger than he was, and Fred Thompson has his southern routs to count on.

It should be very interesting who gets the GOP nomination as Giuliani leads in national polls, but trails in early primary states. Also, if Iowa does not go in Hillary's favor, then the Democratic nomination could get just as interesting.

Tomorrow night at 8:00 on CNN the Republican candidates face off in the You Tube debate. Could be interesting. I'd watch for attacks from Romney and Giuliani to each other. Also, Mike Huckabee seems to be on the rise.

Boughton Explains Why Romney

If you recall, about two months ago I reported that Mayor Boughton would serve as co-chair for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign in Connecticut. Boughton has now publicly talked about this on his blog, which you can read here.

First, the Mayor basically made clear why he supports the former Massachusetts Governor. He listed four reasons. The first was that Iraq was in a mess, and needed someone who was capable of coming up with a good plan to deal with the issue. The second was illegal immigration, where he feels that Romney is the only one who could truly address it. The third was that Boughton said he was sick of the usual politicians, and feels that Romney is not one of them. The fourth was that he liked the fact that Romney is a strong family man.

Now, it does seem a little interesting that Boughton has endorsed Romney, and is an official member of the campaign. Most Republicans in Connecticut have decided to support Rudy Giuliani, which Boughton himself even said in his post. The latest poll shows Giuliani with 41% in Connecticut followed by Romney with 13%, John McCain with 12%, and Fred Thompson with 7%. Many Republican state legislators are backing Giuliani, as well as former Congresswoman Nancy Johnson. Congressman Chris Shays has endorsed John McCain.

Boughton definitely explained his reasoning, and he said he will continue to post on his experiences within the Romney campaign. It should be interesting to see. I'll be starting to write on the race for President, speculating on different primary states, making predictions, and analyzing. This may very well be the best election we will ever see.

Now To '08

Now that the local election is over, all eyes have turned to the 2008 election, which features some very interesting races. Here's what to expect to see talked on this blog in the months to come.

• The race for President. The Iowa Caucus is set for January 3rd and the New Hampshire Primary is set for the 8th. From there on, we will regularly be watching different states who hold primaries, until February 5th when Connecticut along with many other states hold their primary. We will probably know by mid-February who the two candidates will be.


• The race for Congress. We should have a fairly competitive race here in the fifth district, as our State Senator is challenging our incumbent Congressman. Chris Murphy and David Cappiello are very strong candidates who will hopefully bring a lot to the public. The two do feel about the same way on Iraq, so it should be interesting how it all carries out.


• The race for State Senate. Since David Cappiello is running for Congress, he is not running for his State Senate seat. It should be very interesting who runs for this, for both the Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have held the seat for over a decade, and it has always been a strong hold for them. However, Democrats can see this as an opportunity to pick up a seat they haven't had a real shot at for many years. This race could get very interesting.


• The races for State Representatives. There are four state house seats in Danbury, and some could get fun to watch, while others could get dull. Democrats hold three district seats (2nd, 109th, and 110th). Republicans hold the other district seat (138th). The 109th was expected to be close last time, but Joe Taborsak easily won. Bob Godfrey also cruised to re-election in the 110th district. The 138th has been considered the most Republican district of the four, as Jan Giegler has managed to win impressive victories since barely winning her first term in 2002. The most interesting race could be for the 2nd district seat, which Republicans did hold until 2006.
  
  

Those are the races that we will talk about a lot within the coming months. It should be a very interesting, but fun ride until November 2008.

Happy Thanksgiving

Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving and enjoys their time with family and friends. Enjoy the day!

A Teenage Politician

In The News-Times the other day there was a nice write up on Andrew Wetmore, a newly elected Republican Zoning Commission member. You can read it here.

Wetmore is only nineteen years old, and a WestConn student. Despite being so young, he managed to get the third highest amount of votes out of all the zoning candidates. He said he did not expect to win, however did work hard to get elected.

Wetmore is not new to politics, as he said he worked in the unsuccessful State Representative campaigns of Gregg Seabury, along with Congresswoman Nancy Johnson's failed re-election campaign last year. He also tried to fill a vacant seat on the Board of Education in the summer of 2006, but did not get chosen.

From the article it sounds like Wetmore intends to be very involved in politics for a while.

When asked if he would run for mayor in two years, Wetmore said,"Not in two years . . . One day, I would like that. It's very much in the distance. There are other things that are more important, like a college degree and having a family."

He could very well be a rising star in local politics. Only time will tell.

Staying Put

Susan Podhajski has withdrawn her resignation from the Board of Education. You can read the news here.

Podhajski said that she has now accepted a job within Connecticut, which will allow her to still be on the school board. Last week, she announced her resignation because she accepted a job in New Hampshire.

She is currently Chair of the board, which will have its annual meeting to elect officers on December fifth.