The 2nd District

Jason Bartlett (D-Inc.)

vs.

Melanie O'Brien (R)

In my opinion this is going to be the best of the four house races. The reason being that Republicans want it back, and Democrats want to keep it.

Jason Bartlett is currently representing the district, after he was elected to it in 2006 by about 54%. He previously ran unsuccessful for the spot in 2002 and narrowly lost in 2004. Republican Hank Bielawa beat him both times. This year, Republicans went with Melanie O'Brien who is an attorney in Bethel.

O'Brien is a very appealing candidate and perhaps the best choice the GOP could of gone with. However, Bartlett is a strong candidate and has good name recognition. He is always in the newspaper and his name is quite known. O'Brien does not have that on her side. She does however have the ability to do well. She has a very personable quality to her that could go very far. If O'Brien does a lot of door knocking and outreach in the community, then maybe she could pull off a win.

Of course Bartlett has a slightly upper hand being the incumbent, but he is far from a shoe in. This district is made up of three towns, Redding, Danbury, and Bethel. I believe Redding tilts Republican, while Bethel tilts Democratic. However, since O'Brien is from Bethel it could make for an interesting race in that town. Also, Danbury is more of a battle ground, with probably no clear favorite.

As of right now, this race is a toss-up.

What's To Come

As I have mentioned I will be analyzing the State Senate and four State Representative races. I have decided to hold off on the Senate, and start with the House seats. After I do those, I will then write on the Democratic Senate primary, which is only a few weeks away. With the election only three and a half months away, the time has come to start closely looking at these races.

Independent Senate Candidate

Manuel Bataguas has gotten the required 150 signatures needed to get his name on the State Senate ballot this November. You can read it here.

Bataguas tried to get the Democratic nomination, but failed and did not decide to pursue their endorsement. He is now going to appear on the ballot most likely as an independent.

The 24th Senate seat has become very interesting. The Democrats are in the middle of a primary battle between Councilman Duane Perkins, who got the nomination, and Danbury resident Terry Tierney. It will take place on August 12th. The winner of that will face Bataguas and Republican Mike McLachlan.

I will have more detailed analysis on the primary and Senate races in general, as well as the local House races within the coming weeks.

Fundraising Numbers

In the race for the fifth district, both Chris Murphy and David Cappiello have released their second quarter fundraising numbers. Here is what they raised, how much they have raised in total, and how much cash they have on hand.

Raised Second Quarter
Murphy - $515,000
Cappiello - $446,000

Raised In Total
Murphy - $2.275 million
Cappiello - $1.114 million

Cash on Hand
Murphy - $1.9 million
Cappiello - $710,646

Getting Campaign Cash

The News-Times ran an article today regarding the new campaign finance laws. You can read it here.

This year, state candidates can become a part of the new Citizen Elections Program. A candidate for the house needs to raise $5,000 from at least 150 people within the town or towns they represent. They will then get $25,000, which will give them $30,000 for the entire campaign. A senate candidate needs to raise $15,000 from at least 300 people. They will then get $85,000 to give them $100,000 for the campaign.

In Danbury, the only candidate who has officially received their money is Republican Mike McLachlan who is running for the State Senate. It is likely that the incumbent house members will get their money soon, as it is always easier for an incumbent to raise money. However, this will give challengers more of a level playing field. They won't have to worry about facing a well financed incumbent.

We will have to see if this ends up having a big role in the election.

Happy Fourth of July

Wishing everyone a wonderful July 4th as we celebrate the birthday of the greatest nation on earth. America will always be the beacon of hope, and we thank and honor the founding fathers who fought for the many freedoms we hold so close.

Some Polls

Quinnipiac has come out with a lot of polls this week, and here's a wrap up of them.

First of all, Barack Obama has a big lead over John McCain in Connecticut. Obama leads the Arizona Senator 56%-35%. A poll last month had McCain within 3% in our state, but it appears as though our residents have went back to their Democratic ways. The McCain camp has said that they want to target New Hampshire and possibly Connecticut as their two Northeastern states. As for Obama, it looks very good for him here.

Next, Jodi Rell is still popular, but not as much as she used to be. There was a time where 80% of our state approved of her job. In March the number was 76%, but it is now down to a 65% approval. The tough economic times for residents is likely to lead to her numbers going down, but all things considered she is still in good shape.

Also, Joe Lieberman and Chris Dodd lost some ground as well. Lieberman's approval has dropped to just 45%. He polls the worst with Democrats, which he used to be, probably because of his strong and vocal support for Republican John McCain. Dodd is approved by 51% of the state, which is the same as three months ago.

Connecticut may go blue in presidential elections, but it is really a purple state. The last poll I'll report on was which baseball team Connecticut residents like the best. In an essential tie, the Red Sox picked up 41% and the Yankees got 40%. Between New York Yankees blue and Boston Red Sox red, Connecticut is clearly a purple state.